Get the latest trade ideas from our community to enhance your market insights and identify key entry points. Sign up for our newsletter to get live updates.
Welcome Aboard!
Get ready to receive cutting-edge analysis, top-notch education, and actionable tips straight to your inbox.
Election, Fed Policy Drive Silver
The past several days have been a rollercoaster for silver (XAG/USD) traders. Prices have been all over the place as the markets priced a hot US CPI reading. What’s next? With CPI now out of the way, all eyes are focused on the US election and Fed expectations.
US Election
Since Friday’s close, the US election has taken an interesting turn. Recent polls suggest that former President Donald Trump is surging, and Vice President Kamala Harris is beginning to lag. NBC reports the race as a statistical dead heat, with each candidate receiving 48%. This sentiment is widespread, with most believing that the election is “too close to call.”
Over the past 72 hours, betting markets have shifted towards Trump. Political trading website PolyMarket has Trump as a 58.3% to 41.5% favorite. With nearly 2 billion dollars in traded volume, this is the largest market on the board for the 2024 Presidential Election Winner.
As a general rule, uncertainty drives precious metals higher. Uncertainty surrounding Election 2024 has been a bullish catalyst for gold and silver. As the American leadership picture becomes clear, bids are likely to taper a bit. A short-term correction in silver is certainly possible as the election is decided.
Fed Expectations
Last Thursday’s US CPI report was an eye-opener for fans of dovish Fed policy. CPI rose month over month, eclipsing expectations by 0.1%. The report surprised many economists, as most believed the long-awaited “disinflationary cycle” had arrived.
The unexpectedly hot CPI report sent interest rate expectations reeling. Initially, the markets were pricing a series of aggressive ½ point rate cuts to wrap up 2024. That quickly changed as the markets debated the impact of entrenched inflation. At press time, the CME FedWatch Index assigns a 92.1% chance of a ¼ point rate cut. A month ago, the CME FedWatch Index assigned a 50% chance of a ¼ point and a 50% chance of a ½ point rate cut. To say the least, this is a significant hawkish shift.
Bottom line: the dollar has strengthened as rate-cut expectations have fallen. This is a bearish market driver for silver.
XAG/USD: Technical Outlook
33.00 has been a key technical level for silver. Until proven otherwise, this area is best respected as viable natural resistance.
The 32.5185 - 32.9625 pricing zone is a vital supply area. A short-term selloff is likely if the XAG/USD can muster another test of this level. Overall, a pre-election run at 33.0000 should offer solid selling opportunities from the 32.7500 vicinity. Check out our Key Levels for more!
With only 22 days from the next Fed meeting, this week’s economic calendar is relatively vacant. Due to a lack of market-moving events, a period of calm silver market conditions is probable. Of course, anything can happen, and it pays to be prepared for the unexpected!
Subscribe for on-demand lessons, trade ideas, trading challenges and weekly newsletters packed with actionable information.
Welcome Aboard!
Get ready to receive cutting-edge analysis, top-notch education, and actionable tips straight to your inbox.
Great, you've been entered into our monthly prize draw. We'll notify you if you've won.
Thank you for downloading our trading plan!
Thank you, you’re all set!
Login
Welcome back to HowToTrade
Or register using
Reset your password
Type your email and we'll send you a reset link
Done!
A password reset has been requested for . Check your email for your reset link.
Disclaimer: The information on the HowToTrade.com website and inside our Trading Academy platform is intended for educational purposes and is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading the financial markets carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, experience, and risk appetite. Only trade with money you are prepared to lose. Like any investment, there is a possibility that you could sustain losses of some or all of your investment whilst trading. You should seek independent advice before trading if you have any doubts. Past performance in the markets is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
HowToTrade.com takes no responsibility for loss incurred as a result of the content provided inside our Trading Academy. By signing up as a member you acknowledge that we are not providing financial advice and that you are making the decision on the trades you place in the markets. We have no knowledge of the level of money you are trading with or the level of risk you are taking with each trade.
The HowToTrade.com website uses cookies in order to provide you with the best experience. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, or by accepting our Cookie Policy notification you consent to our Privacy Policy, which details our Cookie Policy.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Subscribe to our email newsletter below to be reminded then the next live stream begins.
Welcome Aboard!
Get ready to receive cutting-edge analysis, top-notch education, and actionable tips straight to your inbox.